AQR recently published an article on SSRN (and on their webpage) dissecting the low realized Trend Following performance over the last decade. They generally find that market moves has been smaller than average and sees better returns in the future (if market returns to normal.
The article refute common reasons such as “crowding” (that the strategy is no longer unable to profit from market moves) or “portfolio effects” (since trend following is a low Sharpe strategy, it depends on being able to combine many uncorrelated return streams).
Read more here: https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/White-Papers/You-Cant-Always-Trend-When-You-Want or https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3487134
Photo by rupixen.com on Unsplash
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